Oscar nomination predictions

The nominations get announced tomorrow morning at 8:30am Eastern.  And while it was always more fun trying to predict the Best Picture nominees when the field was limited to five (I hate the 10-nominee field like Hook hates Pan), I still can't resist seeing how close I can get to the final tally.  So here's my list, followed by a few scattershot thoughts on the other major categories:


Best Picture:

1. Black Swan
2. Inception
3. The Social Network
4. The Fighter
5. The King's Speech
6. Toy Story 3
7. True Grit
8. 127 Hours
9. Winter's Bone
The Kids Are All Right

And not to hedge my bets, but I wouldn't be surprised if The Town sneaks in to that 9th or 10th spot.  (The top five would be my choices if this was 2009. Or 1945.  Or any year in between).  

Best Actor: Colin Firth is the front-runner to win it all for The King's Speech.  Expect to see James Franco, Mark Wahlberg, Jeff Bridges, and Jessie Eisenberg round out the category. (Dark horse: Ryan Gosling)

Best Actress: Natalie Portman is the most surefire bet you could make this year. But since there has to be other nominees, I'm expecting Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman (for Rabbit Hole), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), and Jennifer Lawrence.

Best Supporting Actor: I think Christian Bale leads the pack right now, but his temperament may come back to haunt him on Oscar night.  Geoffrey Rush will be nominated, Mark Ruffalo is likely, and I think Vincent Cassel has a decent shot.  Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake might cancel each other out, and give an opportunity to someone like Matt Damon.

Best Supporting Actress: I give the edge right now to Helena Bonham Carter, if only because Amy Adams and Melissa Leo may split votes between them.  All three will be nominated though, as well as Mila Kunis and Hallie Steinfeld.  I've heard people talk up Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, but I think that movie will end up being too little-seen to get her enough votes.

Best Director: As Picture goes, so goes Director.  But there's not 10 nominees here, so who gets left out?  David Fincher, Darren Aronofsky, and Tom Hooper are locks.  And since directors nominate directors, and the other DGA picks were Christopher Nolan and David O. Russell, I wouldn't bet against them.  Sorry, Coen brothers.

I'll stop there.  Dissecting the writing categories, effects, documentaries (expect Waiting For Superman and Inside Job) - see, I've got thoughts on them all but lunch hour is almost over.  So overall, I'm looking at The King's Speech to lead the pack with 12 nominations, Black Swan and Inception tied for second with 11, The Social Network with 9, and The Fighter with 8.  I'll look to update tomorrow to see how close I came.